Severe Weather Outlook - Day One

SPC Day1 1300Z Outlook Categorical

      TEXT FORECAST

   SPC AC 220045
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008
   
   VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...GREAT LAKES...
   
   SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS
   HEIGHTS RISE AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE HOSTILE AND
   LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.  IF ANY LIGHTNING OCCURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS IT WILL BE VERY SPARSE AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO ERN PARTS OF
   LAKE ERIE OR PERHAPS LAKE ONTARIO.
   
   
   ...WA COAST...
   
   STRONG FRONTAL BAND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING COASTAL WA.  00Z SOUNDING
   FROM UIL HAS YET TO DEPICT ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY NOTED ALONG
   LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL BAND...THOUGH A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF CAPE
   IS NOTED IF LIFTING A PARCEL NEAR 700MB.  LATEST LIGHTNING DATA DOES
   DEPICT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 35MI SW OF UIL...THOUGH THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.  CONTINUED
   WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE THUS A GENERAL
   THUNDER FORECAST WILL NOT BE WARRANTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..DARROW.. 11/22/2008