Interesting GFS, showing persistance on developing something in SW Carib! |
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Interesting GFS, showing persistance on developing something in SW Carib! |
 May 18 2008, 02:54 PM
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 Category 3 Hurricane  Group: Superintendent Posts: 652 Joined: 10-April 07 From: Fort Walton Beach/Destin, FL Member No.: 70 Greatest Weather Experience: HURRICANES OPAL & IVAN!!!  |
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...en_l_loop.shtml
we need to start looking for some consistency in the runs, but it is at least interesting!!! This post has been edited by FWBbreeze: May 25 2008, 10:33 PM -------------------- "Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference."
Winston Churchill |
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May 18 2008, 03:25 PM
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 Category 3 Hurricane  Group: Meteorological Student Posts: 715 Joined: 2-June 07 From: Mobile, AL and Jasper, TN Member No.: 301 Greatest Weather Experience: Storm Chasing in East Central Alabama on April 10, 2009. My group saw 3 funnel clouds and one Tornado. The tornado was at night and illuminated by a pulsating lightning strike. That day I also saw the largest hail stones I've ever seen. (Golf Ball Sized.) |
Not to get anyone's hopes up or anything... But that does show a typical June tropical system in the gulf. Notice how most of the precip is displaced to the right because of the wind shear? Notice the area it forms in? Notice the direction it's moving in? Of course it may be gone on the next run so don't get your hopes up but the GFS could be on to something. I was talking to my MET friend that works in Coastal Weather Research Center oncampus and he said a few models have hinted at something down the line... We'll see.
--------------------  Robert Frye Senior Meteorology (Environmental) and Physical Geography Student University of South Alabama Department of Earth Sciences |
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May 22 2008, 10:42 PM
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 Category 3 Hurricane  Group: Members Posts: 1,416 Joined: 28-April 07 From: Monett, Missouri *Home of the nation's best speech and debate team* Member No.: 174 Greatest Weather Experience: Tornado Outbreak of May 2003. |
Believe it or not the FOX affiliate in Houston, TX has this as their lead story on their website!!!
Oh boy... Tropical Storm May Form In The Caribbean By Next Week -------------------- ~~Garrett
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May 23 2008, 01:53 AM
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Meteorological Student Posts: 715 Joined: 2-June 07 From: Mobile, AL and Jasper, TN Member No.: 301 Greatest Weather Experience: Storm Chasing in East Central Alabama on April 10, 2009. My group saw 3 funnel clouds and one Tornado. The tornado was at night and illuminated by a pulsating lightning strike. That day I also saw the largest hail stones I've ever seen. (Golf Ball Sized.) |
OH GEEZ!!! Say hello to $4.00 gas...
-------------------- Robert Frye Senior Meteorology (Environmental) and Physical Geography Student University of South Alabama Department of Earth Sciences |
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May 23 2008, 01:55 AM
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#5
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Meteorological Student Posts: 715 Joined: 2-June 07 From: Mobile, AL and Jasper, TN Member No.: 301 Greatest Weather Experience: Storm Chasing in East Central Alabama on April 10, 2009. My group saw 3 funnel clouds and one Tornado. The tornado was at night and illuminated by a pulsating lightning strike. That day I also saw the largest hail stones I've ever seen. (Golf Ball Sized.) |
"FOX 26 Chief Meteorologist Dr. Jim Siebert said. But even though the storm could become enough to be the first named storm of the year, it most likely won't impact the Gulf of Mexico."
Umm... I know I'm still in school but I think Jim is jumping the gun. NO WAY would I stick my neck out that far. -------------------- Robert Frye Senior Meteorology (Environmental) and Physical Geography Student University of South Alabama Department of Earth Sciences |
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May 25 2008, 10:31 PM
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#6
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Superintendent Posts: 652 Joined: 10-April 07 From: Fort Walton Beach/Destin, FL Member No.: 70 Greatest Weather Experience: HURRICANES OPAL & IVAN!!! |
Time to start watching the GFS closely. It is now consistantly trying to spin up something in the SW Carib nearly every run.
This is at 168 hours! 
850vort28.png ( 84.59K )
Number of downloads: 26-------------------- "Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference."
Winston Churchill |
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May 26 2008, 07:32 AM
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 Administrator  Group: CEO Posts: 1,613 Joined: 28-April 06 From: Chatham, ON, Canada Member No.: 1 |
The GGEM is also showing a storm in Gulf...
-------------------- Stefan J. Miller
CWMRO Administrator, Located in Chatham, Ontario, Canada http://www.weatherdiscussions.com / http://www.cwmro.com |
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May 26 2008, 08:52 AM
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#8
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Members Posts: 1,416 Joined: 28-April 07 From: Monett, Missouri *Home of the nation's best speech and debate team* Member No.: 174 Greatest Weather Experience: Tornado Outbreak of May 2003. |
Which wave is this storm going to come from?
-------------------- ~~Garrett
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May 26 2008, 09:43 AM
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#9
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Superintendent Posts: 652 Joined: 10-April 07 From: Fort Walton Beach/Destin, FL Member No.: 70 Greatest Weather Experience: HURRICANES OPAL & IVAN!!! |
The GFS show it spinning up from a low that exits South America. There is also a tail end of a front draped over the region.
-------------------- "Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference."
Winston Churchill |
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May 26 2008, 10:08 AM
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 Category 4 Hurricane  Group: Members Posts: 1,963 Joined: 25-January 07 From: Raleigh, NC Member No.: 7 Greatest Weather Experience: The Super Outbreak of April 3-4, 1974. Blizzard of 1978. Blizzard of 1996. Hurricanes: Fran 1996, Floyd 1999 and Isabel 2003. |
QUOTE (TnTornado @ May 23 2008, 02:53 AM)  OH GEEZ!!! Say hello to $4.00 gas... Those power-hungry Congressmen/women will just continue hiking/spiking the $$$$ of gas no matter what the heck ... -------------------- Keepin' my eyes to the sky! :)
Eric :) |
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May 27 2008, 08:01 AM
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Category 2 Hurricane  Group: Members Posts: 348 Joined: 20-June 07 From: Naples, Florida Member No.: 336 Greatest Weather Experience: Having been in over twelve hurricanes. |
We sure need some much-needed rain. But I have my druthers we will get any from this blob, in SW Florida.
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May 27 2008, 12:35 PM
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#12
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Superintendent Posts: 652 Joined: 10-April 07 From: Fort Walton Beach/Destin, FL Member No.: 70 Greatest Weather Experience: HURRICANES OPAL & IVAN!!! |
-------------------- "Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference."
Winston Churchill |
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May 27 2008, 04:30 PM
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#13
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Administrator Group: CEO Posts: 1,613 Joined: 28-April 06 From: Chatham, ON, Canada Member No.: 1 |
QUOTE (FWBbreeze @ May 27 2008, 01:46 PM)  Looks like the GFS may actually be on to something... -------------------- Stefan J. Miller
CWMRO Administrator, Located in Chatham, Ontario, Canada http://www.weatherdiscussions.com / http://www.cwmro.com |
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May 28 2008, 02:08 AM
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#14
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Meteorological Student Posts: 715 Joined: 2-June 07 From: Mobile, AL and Jasper, TN Member No.: 301 Greatest Weather Experience: Storm Chasing in East Central Alabama on April 10, 2009. My group saw 3 funnel clouds and one Tornado. The tornado was at night and illuminated by a pulsating lightning strike. That day I also saw the largest hail stones I've ever seen. (Golf Ball Sized.) |
It's not just the GFS picking it up. I know the NOGAPS has been picking it up (although I've not checked in a day or two to see if it is still there). Also, I understand our friend the CMC is also picking it up which is no surprise to anyone. Just keep watching and waiting. That's what hurricane season is all about.
-------------------- Robert Frye Senior Meteorology (Environmental) and Physical Geography Student University of South Alabama Department of Earth Sciences |
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May 28 2008, 01:48 PM
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#15
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Superintendent Posts: 652 Joined: 10-April 07 From: Fort Walton Beach/Destin, FL Member No.: 70 Greatest Weather Experience: HURRICANES OPAL & IVAN!!! |
looking better and better!!
-------------------- "Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference."
Winston Churchill |
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May 28 2008, 01:55 PM
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#16
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Superintendent Posts: 652 Joined: 10-April 07 From: Fort Walton Beach/Destin, FL Member No.: 70 Greatest Weather Experience: HURRICANES OPAL & IVAN!!! |
models seem to be hinting at a cross over of the eastern pacific storm/disturbance back into the SW Carib. Interesting development if that occurs.
-------------------- "Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference."
Winston Churchill |
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May 28 2008, 03:03 PM
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#17
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Members Posts: 1,416 Joined: 28-April 07 From: Monett, Missouri *Home of the nation's best speech and debate team* Member No.: 174 Greatest Weather Experience: Tornado Outbreak of May 2003. |
Outflow looks to be getting established in the south. The land, of course, inhibits that to the north.
-------------------- ~~Garrett
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May 28 2008, 03:29 PM
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#18
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Superintendent Posts: 652 Joined: 10-April 07 From: Fort Walton Beach/Destin, FL Member No.: 70 Greatest Weather Experience: HURRICANES OPAL & IVAN!!! |
-------------------- "Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference."
Winston Churchill |
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May 28 2008, 04:15 PM
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#19
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Category 3 Hurricane Group: Superintendent Posts: 652 Joined: 10-April 07 From: Fort Walton Beach/Destin, FL Member No.: 70 Greatest Weather Experience: HURRICANES OPAL & IVAN!!! |
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL EPAC MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W ARE PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 72W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...N COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND E HISPANIOLA. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/281740.shtml? -------------------- "Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference."
Winston Churchill |
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May 28 2008, 04:23 PM
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#20
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 Janice from Puerto Rico Group: Superintendent Posts: 5,128 Joined: 7-May 07 From: Puerto Rico Member No.: 196 Greatest Weather Experience: Sitting at home while Hugo and Georges slammed into us. No great house damage, just trashed the yards. A huge tree fell into our pool. |
All I can say is that it is hotter than Hades down here. My yard is dirt from the heat and the water is hot, so I would say conditions are right.
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